MOROCCO TELECOM: 2010 annual results in line with our forecasts Done: Publication of 2010 annual results.
Analysis: MOROCCO TELECOM has evolved during the year 2010 in an environment marked by a further intensification of competition, particularly in the Mobile segment after the entry commissioning of the third GSM license in WANA. Despite this situation, the Moroccan subsidiary of VIVENDI manages to reach a consolidated turnover of 31 million MAD 655.0 (+4.3% compared to 2009), essentially capitalizing on the continued growing market National Telecom (18.5% enlargement of the park's total subscribers to 32 million users at the end of 2010, representing a penetration rate of 101.5%) and the rise of African subsidiaries (including the contribution Group revenues amounted to 17.7% in 2010 against 15.5% a year earlier and 12.8% in 2008) Activity Morocco generates 82.7% of consolidated turnover of the Group with revenues of MAD 26 million 191.0 (+1.7% compared to 2009).
By segment, the Mobile recorded an increase of 4.3% of its business to 19 million MAD 670.0, taking advantage of (i) an increase of 10.6% of the total subscriber base to 16.9 million customers, (ii) declining 4.5 points to 29.0% Churn and (iii) maintaining ARPU and MOU at ever higher, respectively MAD 93 and 52 minutes. Note also that this segment was boosted by the increase of 25% of non-voice revenue, now representing 10.5% average bill against 8.7% at end 2009.
For their part, the Fixed-line and Internet are down by 8.6% to MAD 8,507 million, following the strong competition from mobile and reduction of leased line tariff fixed by the mobile MOROCCO TELECOM. On the Set, the park displays a virtual standstill to 1.231 million customers while on the Internet, ridership increased by 5.4% to 497,000 lines. African subsidiaries show, meanwhile, contrasting trends: +7.1% for MAURITEL MAD 1 M 184.0, +6.5% for ONATEL M MAD 1802 and +25.1% for SOTELMA M MAD 1575.
However, GABON TELECOM shows a decline of 14.0% of its revenues to MAD 1,044 million, following entry of a new operator (AIRTEL) on the Gabonese market telecoms. Under these conditions and face a cost structure burdened by promotional efforts, EBITDA contains its evolution to +2.5% to MAD 18,612 million (including M MAD 4916 in Morocco for a gross margin of 62.2% ), reducing the gross margin to 58.8% against 59.8% in 2009. On the operational side and to higher depreciation related to the magnitude of the investment program undertaken by the Group (M MAD 6 535.0 (up 12% from 2009), M MAD 2193 in Morocco for the Mobile (-24%), M MAD 2060 for Fixed & Internet (+10%) and M MAD 2281 for African subsidiaries (+110%)), The operating result rose by 2.3% limited to 14 million MAD 335.0 fixing the operating margin to 45.3% against 46.2% a year earlier.
Finally, the NPGS is 1.2% to MAD 9,536 million, thus highlighting a net margin of 30.1%, down 1 percentage point compared to 2009. After payment of nearly 9.1 billion MAD to shareholders for the dividend 2009 and MAD 7.1 billion in network investments, the Group's consolidated net debt stood at MAD 4.3 billion (Cons MAD 3.6 billion in 2009), representing only 0.2 x EBITDA annually. In parallel, despite the 12% increase in CAPEX, net cash provided by operating activities amounted to MAD 12,836 million, down slightly from 2.7%.
Given the foregoing, the Supervisory Board MOROCCO TELECOM intends to propose at the AGM of shareholders on April 18, 2011 to distribute a dividend of MAD 10.58, up 2.6% to 2009 and reflecting a payout of 100%. On the basis of an observed during MAD 152.15 dated February 21, 2011, the dividend yield stands to 7.0%.
In terms of outlook, the Senior Management MOROCCO TELECOM expects a slight growth in business and maintain high profitability. Note, also, MOROCCO TELECOM has been declared successful tenderer would BENIN TELECOM and also in advanced talks to acquire BELL TELECOM.
Conclusion: Given the evolution of financial aggregates in 2010 and pending the publication of the detailed summary, we maintain our forecasts and our target price to MAD 171 and our recommendation to accumulate Title in portfolios.
BMCE Capital Bourse